1、 Upstream market trends of cable raw materials (PVC)

（1） Crude oil dynamics

In October, oil prices rose slightly, showing an overall consolidation trend. On the one hand, production reducing countries led by Saudi Arabia continue to release optimistic statements as a "verbal boost", especially the expectation of extending production cuts until the end of 2018, which further boosts oil prices. On the other hand, this "verbal boost" has clearly weakened its effect on continuing to push up oil prices after the high geopolitical risks in the early stage caused the oil prices to rise. In addition, after the hurricane, US crude oil production began to rebound significantly, and with the arrival of winter, Alaska's crude oil production stabilized at a high level, exacerbating market concerns about the supply side. This week, the announced crude oil inventories began to show signs of increasing, casting a shadow over the future oil market. In short, there has been no significant improvement in fundamentals, and there is a relative lack of long and short news, leading to a resurgence of oil price consolidation.

（2） Market dynamics of calcium carbide

This month, the supply-demand game in the calcium carbide market continues, with limited increase in terminal arrivals and no inventory pressure for enterprises. It is expected that the overall calcium carbide market will continue to maintain a wait-and-see attitude next week, with the overall price focus remaining high.

（3） Ethylene market dynamics

This month, the cost of ethylene production enterprises is about 7000 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 50 yuan/ton. Some enterprises have even begun to experience a phenomenon of inversion, and the narrowing of profits limits the downward space of prices. The price of ethylene in the market is temporarily stable, and market investors are quiet.

2、 Market Trends of Cable Raw Materials (PVC) Enterprises

grade	manufacturer	price	Rise and fall	Remark
SG3-5	Henan Aerospace	6550	0	Save factory price and acceptance
SG3-5	Yihua, Hubei			No quote
SG3-5	Hunan Zhuhua			No quote
SG5	Jining Jinwei	6700	0	pricing
SG3-5	Jinxi Chemical			No quote
SG3-5	Inner Mongolia Sanlian	6350	0	pricing
SG3-5	Ningxia Yinglite	6550	0	pricing
S1000	Qilu Petrochemical	6750	0	pricing
S700	Qilu Petrochemical	6850	0	pricing
SG3-5	Shandong Xinfa	6450	0	Ex factory foreign exchange
SG3-5	Shanxi Yushe	6400	0	pricing
WS1000	Upper Chlorpheniramine Peak			No quote
WS800	Upper Chlorpheniramine Peak			No quote
SG3-5	Sichuan Chengdu Huarong	6600	0	pricing
SG3-5	四川金路	6650	0	Delivered within the current Huichuan area
HS-1000	Suzhou Huasu	7100	0	pricing
S-60	Formosa Plastics Ningbo	7200	0	pricing
S-65	Formosa Plastics Ningbo	7150	0	pricing
S-70	Formosa Plastics Ningbo	7250	0	pricing
SLK-1000	Tianjin Dagu			No quote
SG3-8	Tianjin Chemical Industry			No quote
SG3-5	Yunnan salinization	6600	0	pricing
Unit: yuan/ton

3、 Maintenance statistics of domestic PVC enterprises

Statistics on Maintenance of Domestic Devices
Region	manufacturing enterprise	workmanship	production capacity	Parking situation
Recent changes in PVC equipment statistics
northwest	Salt Lake Haina	Carbide method	20	On February 14th, due to a malfunction, the parking was stopped and the driving time is currently uncertain
northwest	Yihua, Xinjiang	Carbide method	40	On February 17th, the vehicle will be parked for maintenance, and the driving time is still uncertain
northwest	Qinghai Salt Lake	Carbide method	20	Unexpected parking on June 27th, uncertain driving time
northwest	Yihua, Qinghai	Carbide method	30	Parking on August 28th, planning to drive on October 5th
northwest	Ningxia Yinglite	Carbide method	22	Maintenance of PVC3 type and PVC paste device on the evening of October 16th
northwest	Xinjiang Saint	Carbide method	50	The device will stop on September 18th and start on September 24th
northwest	Ordos Chlor Alkali	Carbide method	40	Maintenance on September 11th, resumption of operation on September 26th
northwest	Ningxia Jinyuyuan	Carbide method	50	Maintenance on September 18th, production on September 24th
northwest	Inner Mongolia Yili	Carbide method	50	The device started maintenance on September 20th and resumed production on September 26th
northwest	Inner Mongolia Junzheng	Carbide method	70	New factory 360000 tons, minor repair from September 26th to 28th
East China	Lutai Chemistry	Carbide method	36	The device unexpectedly stopped on June 29th and started feeding on September 28th
East China	Formosa Plastics Ningbo	ethylene process	40	Maintenance will begin on September 18th and the vehicle will start on September 28th
northwest	Yidong Dongxing Chemical	Carbide method	30	Overhaul for 6 days on October 15th, and start driving on October 22nd
northwest	Shaanxi Beiyuan	Carbide method	110	Starting from October 23rd, the round of repairs will begin
northwest	Jinchuan, Gansu	Carbide method	30	Plan to conduct maintenance by the end of October
East China	Qinghai Sea Crystal	ethylene process	30	The maintenance will start on October 15th and last for about 10 days
East China	Dongyue, Shandong	Carbide method	12	Planned maintenance by the end of October
East China	Suzhou Huasu	ethylene process	13	Plan to conduct a 10 day maintenance by the end of October

4、 Market Trends of Cable Raw Materials (PVC)

According to cable network monitoring data, the spot price performance of PVC market has significantly declined this month. The average price of PVC spot at the beginning of the month was 7180 yuan/ton, and the end of the month price was 6840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4.73%. This month, merchant shipments have been light, and the overall market atmosphere is sluggish. The trading situation is not ideal, and the trading atmosphere is showing a downward trend compared to last week.

The reasons for the decline in PVC market prices this month are analyzed as follows:

Upstream market: In October, the domestic calcium carbide market prices rose, with a 7.28% increase for the month and a 24.20% increase compared to last year. This month, the maintenance of calcium carbide equipment by various calcium carbide manufacturers has been completed, resulting in an increase in equipment operating rate and supply of calcium carbide. At the same time, downstream PVC equipment maintenance has been completed, and equipment has started operating one after another, leading to an increase in demand for calcium carbide. As the end of the month approaches, the actual transaction prices of some calcium carbide enterprises have slightly decreased. Affected by weak downstream demand, ethylene has shown a fluctuating downward trend this month. According to testing, the average price of ethylene in October fell from $1134.2/ton to $1076.8/ton, a decrease of $57.4/ton or 5.06%. In terms of ethylene import and export: In September 2017, ethylene imports were 172000 tons, an increase of 19% compared to the previous month.

Spot market: The domestic PVC market has fluctuated and declined this month. In terms of imports, the PVC import volume in September was 84500 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to September was 582100 tons, an increase of 11.99% month on month and 88.66% year-on-year. On the other hand, strict environmental inspections have led to a decrease in the operating rate of downstream product factories in North China. In addition, transportation is restricted, and the weather in the north has turned cold, resulting in frequent parking and production restrictions for enterprises. Downstream product enterprises as a whole maintain their basic needs. As of the end of the month, the price of Type 5 electric stone materials in the East China market is between 6550-6650 yuan/ton, and the price of ethylene materials delivered to the low-end market in East China is between 6900-7000 yuan/ton.

In terms of operating rate, the operating rate of domestic PVC enterprises increased in October. According to statistics, the overall operating rate of PVC remained at 76.38%, an increase of 8.85% compared to September. And with the return of the Double Festival holiday, factory inventory has increased.

Market forecast: As of the end of this month, the PVC market is expected to fluctuate and decline, while upstream raw material prices remain strong, providing some cost support for PVC. However, the slight rebound in short-term inventory and poor downstream demand have limited the upward momentum of prices. As the National Day holiday approaches and downstream stocking is expected, the purchasing volume may increase, depending on the market's bearish trend. It is expected that the PVC market will maintain a weak consolidation pattern next month.

5、 Market Trends in Various Regions of China

The PVC market in Hebei Province is experiencing weak consolidation. Currently, the mainstream price of calcium carbide method type 5 material excluding tax is around 5970-6050 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price including tax is around 6480-6540 yuan/ton. Actual transactions can be negotiated.

The PVC market in Hangzhou has loosened narrowly, with some areas experiencing slight price reductions. The mainstream price for self lifting of calcium carbide method type 5 is 6550-6650 yuan/ton. The reference quotation is as follows: Sanlian type 5 is 6550 yuan/ton, Ordos type 5 is 6640 yuan/ton, Jinyuyuan type 5 is 6640 yuan/ton, Zhongtai type 5 is negotiable at 6620-6650 yuan/ton, Beiyuan type 5 is 6650 yuan/ton, Tianchen and Tianneng type 5 low-end are quoted at 6650 yuan/ton, at 6740 yuan/ton, high-end Jinyuyuan type 3 is 6840 yuan/ton, Yinglite type 3 is 6900 yuan/ton, Tianchen type 8/Tianye type 3 is 6900-6920 yuan/ton. The actual order can be slightly discounted.

The focus of the PVC market in Changzhou has shifted downwards. The mainstream price for ordinary 5-type electrical aggregate is 6550-6630 yuan/ton for self pickup, 6550 yuan/ton for Sanlian, 6630 yuan/ton for Huasu delivery, 6620-6650 yuan/ton for Beiyuan and Zhongtai, and 6650-6680 yuan/ton for Tianchen and Tianneng. Jinyuyuan Type 3 is priced at 6800 yuan/ton, while Beiyuan and Zhongtai Type 8 are priced at 6850-6900 yuan/ton. Ethylene material Qilu S1000 is delivered at a cost of 6900-6950 yuan/ton, combined with 6900-7000 yuan/ton for delivery, and 50-100 yuan/ton for Hanhua.

The PVC market quotation in Shanghai has been lowered by 50-100 yuan/ton. Calcium carbide method for type 5 material is priced at 6550-6650 yuan/ton for self pickup, Zhongtai type 5 material is priced at 6630-6650 yuan/ton for whole vehicle pickup, Tianchen type 5 material is priced at 100 to 6650 yuan/ton for self pickup, and Tianye type 3 material is priced at 50 to 6850 yuan/ton for self pickup. The actual price can be negotiated.

The 300000 ton/year PVC plant in Yushe, Shanxi has started normal operation. Currently, the ex factory foreign exchange price of Type 5 material is 6400 yuan/ton, with an acceptance price of 150 yuan/ton. The transaction is negotiable.

The construction of the Yibin Tianyuan PVC plant is normal, with a reported price of 6700 yuan/ton for Type 5 material delivered from Sichuan, 200 yuan/ton for Type 8 high material, and 300 yuan/ton for Type 3 high material. Actual transactions are negotiable.

About 70% of the 360000 tons/year PVC plant in Jinlu, Sichuan has started construction. Type 5 materials are delivered to Sichuan at around 6650 yuan/ton, while Type 3/8 materials are priced at 200 yuan/ton.

The Ningxia Yinglite PVC5 unit started maintenance on September 4th and started operation on October 29th. The inventory is low, and the factory acceptance price for Type 5 to the north is 6550 yuan/ton, while the factory acceptance price for Type 3 to the north is 6550 yuan/ton. The transaction is negotiable.

80% of the 450000 tons/year PVC plant in Jinyuyuan, Ningxia has started construction. The factory price for type 5 materials using the calcium carbide method is 6500 yuan/ton, and the factory price for type 3 materials is 150 yuan/ton higher. The daily output is around 1100 tons.

90% of the Inner Mongolia Sanlian PVC plant has started production, currently producing 5 types with average shipments. The factory quotation for the acceptance of Type 5 in the north is based on 6300 yuan/ton, with a focus on individual negotiations.

6、 Downstream market demand for cable raw materials (PVC)

In October, the overall trend of the domestic PVC market was limited, and terminal enterprises actively sought low-priced sources of goods, which made them more resistant to quotations. At present, the production of PVC terminal products by domestic enterprises remains at a low level, mainly due to increased environmental supervision efforts, and small family style small workshop based product enterprises have been severely cracked down on. Under the influence of increased inventory, insufficient environmental demand, and monopoly cases, PVC oscillation weakened and continued to decline near the cost line. After digesting negative news, short-term PVC stabilized around 62006300 yuan/ton. Due to the strengthening of upstream raw material prices and the lack of short-term social inventory pressure, there is a high probability of short-term stabilization and rebound in futures prices as downstream customers buy at low prices. Looking at next month, it is highly likely that the raw material calcium carbide will remain stable with a moderate decrease, and the cost support for calcium carbide PVC will be weak. In November, PVC manufacturers had less equipment maintenance and production is expected to increase. But in terms of demand, as usual in previous years, as we enter November, the weather turns cold and the terminal demand decreases. Taking into account the above factors, it is expected that the domestic PVC market will mainly experience weak consolidation in November.